DRAGONS AND CAMELS: China and the Middle East in the Belt and Road Initiative as a Policy of Ascension for Middle Eastern Middle Powers

Introduction

China and the Middle East have maintained relations dating back to ancient civilisational periods, and they were responsible for a significant share of humanity’s scientific and technological progress. For this reason, trade and intercivilisational relations between them remained strong and close for millennia. The ancient Silk Road, which began in the far east of China, crossing the steppes and deserts from the city of Hangzhou, extended to the Middle East, specifically to Baghdad in present-day Iraq and Damascus in Syria, and ended in Cairo, in present-day Egypt. Along this route, silk, gunpowder and other valuable goods manufactured in China were transported.

The importance of this subject can be divided into two aspects, which I shall explore further throughout the article. The first concerns recent events, marked by China’s mediation in the restoration of diplomatic relations between states in the region. The second is how the relationship between these two entities may provide an alternative to United States influence in the region, both in terms of resolving diplomatic disputes and promoting lasting peace and stability, as well as in economic progress and restructuring for countries affected by armed conflicts and internal crises, through the Belt and Road Initiative.

This article aims to examine how China has found more viable pathways to peace in the region, and also how its interests can be advanced without the zero-sum logic that has characterised American hegemony and French and British colonialism in the region. It will also consider how the Middle East perceives this potential form of cooperation and how relations may unfold across political, diplomatic, economic and military domains.

Common Factors Between the Two Regions

China and the Middle East share common historical and geographical characteristics which point to strong relations and mutual interests, especially in cultural terms. Their historical paths are comparable: from the Ba’athist socialist experiences in Iraq and Syria, to their transformation into colonies and semi-colonies, as in the case of the Trucial States in the Persian Gulf. Geographically, both regions are deeply shaped by deserts and pastoral traditions, which in turn connect to their cultural and economic realities. Another significant commonality is that China is home to one of the world’s largest Muslim populations, now estimated at around 20 million, most of whom live in the autonomous region of Xinjiang.

Political Factors in the Middle East

The Middle East has long been known to the general public as a hotspot of tension, in addition to other phenomena that have devastated the region, such as famine, forced migrations, and, more recently, the Covid-19 pandemic, which further hindered the delivery of humanitarian aid. These tensions can be understood on at least three levels.

The first level involves internal political tensions. These include the Arab Spring at the start of the last decade, beginning in Tunisia under the Ben Ali regime, which dramatically changed the course of Middle Eastern history. In Iran, tensions have emerged between conservative Shi’ites and younger generations over the use of the chador. In Lebanon, protests have arisen in recent years in response to economic and political crisis, compounded by the explosion at the Port of Beirut.

Beyond internal unrest, the region has witnessed a series of bloody civil wars that have left countries in long-term instability and underdevelopment. These include the civil wars in Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iraq, as well as conflicts in Iraqi and Turkish Kurdistan, many of which continue today with no clear prospect of resolution.

The second level concerns regional geopolitical tensions, often driven by external interference, particularly from the United States, whose main aim has been to safeguard its interests in the region. These include Arab and Iranian opposition to Zionism, as well as the recent crisis in which Gulf Cooperation Council states accused Qatar of supporting and financing terrorist activities. The nuclear dispute between Iran and Israel, along with their arms race, remains a central concern for the United States, which not only supports Israel but also seeks to isolate Iran diplomatically and weaken it by all possible means.

The third level comprises external interventions by European powers, which historically divided the region into spheres of influence to serve their interests. Later, the United States intervened militarily in Iraq and Afghanistan, where its presence lasted nearly 15 years. These interventions also included the fostering of insurgent groups, the orchestration of coups d’état, and the dissemination of political propaganda.

A Brief History of the Region

The Middle East and North Africa encompass Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, the Palestinian Authority, Syria and Tunisia, as well as the non-Arab states of Turkey, Iran and Israel. The modern history of the Middle East traces back to the fall of the Ottoman Empire shortly before the First World War. With Turkey’s independence secured, other territories became subject to colonial ambitions. Britain and France, under the Sykes-Picot Agreement, divided the former Ottoman lands into colonial protectorates, while recognising Turkey under Mustafa Kemal Atatürk.

France took control of Lebanon and Syria, while Britain oversaw Egypt, the British Mandate of Palestine and Iraq. In the Persian Gulf, some territories were transformed into British protectorates known as Trucial States. After the Second World War, with the decline of colonial empires, countries such as Lebanon, Syria, Egypt (which unilaterally freed itself from Britain in 1922), Iraq and Palestine achieved independence.

The creation of the State of Israel in 1948, implementing the Balfour Declaration issued by Britain, brought rising tensions to the region. Coups d’état soon followed, leading to the rise of republics in place of Western-backed monarchies, particularly in Egypt, Syria and Iraq. These states, with strong nationalist and anti-imperialist ideologies, joined forces to contain Israel’s expansion, supported largely by the West.

Pan-Arabism, as an ideology, provided the foundation for the creation of the Arab League, which sought to unify Arab countries against Zionism and imperialism, drawing inspiration from Nasserism and Arab Ba’athist socialism. Pan-Arabism spread rapidly across the Arab world. The Islamic Revolution of 1978 in Iran, which brought the Ayatollahs to power, posed a major challenge to US hegemony in the region, particularly as Iran expanded its influence in places such as Lebanon, prompting a rapid US withdrawal and making Iran a central target of American opposition. Later US interventions, such as the Gulf War, the Iran-Iraq conflict under Saddam Hussein, and the “War on Terror” at the start of the 21st century, culminating in the invasion of Iraq, all contributed to the region’s ongoing turmoil.

Relations Between China and the Middle East and the Belt and Road Initiative

Relations between China and the Middle East stagnated for some time due to several factors. Chief among these were the strong US presence in the region, which discouraged direct confrontation, and ideological differences, with the notable exceptions of Syria, Egypt and Iraq. In 2013, at the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, President Xi Jinping launched the “One Belt, One Road” initiative, which later, in 2016, became the Belt and Road Initiative. Since then, relations between the two regions have reached a new scale, with China describing the Middle East as a “neighbouring region”, emphasising their long-standing historical and commercial partnership dating back to ancient civilisational periods.

Globalisation with Chinese characteristics is a concept that has increasingly appeared in the vocabulary of the global order, serving as an alternative to capitalist and neo-liberal globalisation, which has been challenged by global phenomena. In response to these challenges, alternative solutions have increasingly been devised. This form of globalisation with Chinese characteristics proposes that the world may be built upon peaceful ascension and shared prosperity, where all parties benefit mutually, without necessarily resorting to violence or unilateral foreign policy. One of the main vehicles of this approach is the Belt and Road Initiative, launched by President Xi Jinping in 2013.

The Belt and Road Initiative seeks to foster economic, political and cultural integration, based on the principle of “a community of shared destiny and common prosperity”, first articulated by President Hu Jintao in 2012. This concept serves as a cornerstone of Chinese foreign policy and provides one of the frameworks through which China can meet its production needs, in line with the “dual circulation” model emphasised by President Xi Jinping in 2020. In this way, the BRI enables China to cultivate bilateral and multilateral relations with states and international organisations to achieve defined objectives.

The new Silk Road is the result of long-standing policies and discourses dating back to Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai, including the principles of peaceful coexistence. Later, in September 2005, on the occasion of the 60th anniversary of the United Nations, President Hu Jintao delivered a speech entitled “Sustainable Peace and Common Prosperity”. A more recent example of this vision can be seen in the normalisation of relations between two major regional powers, one of them nuclear – Iran and Saudi Arabia – long divided by political and religious rivalries between Shi’ites and Sunnis, and competing for influence and regional balance of power.

These two states recently restored diplomatic ties thanks to Chinese mediation and the pursuit of a more integrated Middle East. In contrast, the United States, with its strategy of “divide and rule”, has failed to achieve such outcomes. Another important example is Syria’s reintegration: since the outbreak of the civil war in 2013, Syria had been excluded from the Arab League and broader multilateral structures in the region, subjected to a policy of isolation and cancellation.

For China, the Middle East represents an important geostrategic location, particularly the Persian Gulf, through which between 20 and 30 per cent of the world’s oil supply passes. Energy security is thus of critical importance to China, which is the world’s second-largest consumer of oil. Conversely, the Middle East views China as an increasingly significant economic power, one that is gradually replacing the United States in certain areas. The region sees China’s potential role in reshaping the global order as that of a major revisionist force in global governance, while also encouraging multipolarity, leaving space for other emerging powers to take part in maintaining the international order.

Energy security in the region remains one of China’s core interests, pursued through the expansion of the BRI and the enlargement of BRICS+, of which Saudi Arabia has recently become a full member alongside other Arab states. Political stability in the region is therefore essential to secure a reliable flow of mutual interests, particularly oil. Muslim-majority countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan have been major beneficiaries of these dynamics. A notable case is Iran, which accounts for nearly 20 per cent of the entire BRI budget, with projects such as the construction of Tehran’s metro system. In Pakistan, the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor was established, linking the country’s northeast to its southwest, ending at the port city of Gwadar.

Egypt’s new administrative capital, under construction by the Chinese firm CSCEC and valued at 59 billion US dollars, seeks to revitalise the country’s economy and promote socio-economic development. In Saudi Arabia, China has invested in the construction of pipelines for the state-owned company Aramco, as well as in the development of a smart city equipped with 5G technology and other infrastructure projects for emerging urban areas. In June of this year, Beijing hosted a meeting between President Xi Jinping and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, during which one of the central themes was the pursuit of lasting peace and an end to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. On the multilateral front, China has underscored the importance of enhancing dialogue forums. For instance, in 2016 the State Council of the People’s Republic of China issued a policy paper outlining the principles of a durable relationship, emphasising “firm support for the Arab national liberation movement and steadfast support for Arab countries in defending sovereignty and territorial integrity”. Among Middle Eastern states, Iran, Qatar and Saudi Arabia have since become members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

Conclusion

The historical experience of the United States in the region has become exhausted. Under Donald Trump, US foreign policy focused on punitive measures against Iran and alignment with the rise of Israel, a close ideological ally of the Republicans. This led to a decline in America’s once dominant presence in the Middle East. Although the Abraham Accords were subsequently ratified, they failed to yield meaningful effects, as many leading regional powers do not recognise the State of Israel, fuelling further discontent. Under Joe Biden’s administration, US troops withdrew from Afghanistan after 20 years, leaving behind a political vacuum and instability that persists to this day. Increasingly, regional powers have sought alliances that promote self-sufficiency and autonomy, while respecting cultural and religious boundaries.

Countries such as China and other emerging powers, themselves once victims of imperialist expansion, see in these nations strategic partners in the transformation of the neoliberal global order. By strengthening their own capacities, they also expand their ability to participate in the international economic system with policies that offer alternatives to the periphery–centre dependency model, through structural economic adjustments that support national development and progress. For this reason, China and the Middle East are aligning to build a more stable, secure and economically integrated region, underpinned by a common foreign policy aimed at tackling regional challenges such as terrorism, food insecurity and dependency.

Breno Baptista Flor